The Week Ahead, October 26 to October 30, 2026, published Sunday October 25, 2026 5:30 PM ET
Fed decision, Big Tech earnings and PCE inflation collide in one week
The Fed meets Wednesday, Big Tech reports into the print, and inflation data lands Thursday. Here is what we are watching.
Where last week left us
ES, S&P 500 futures
7,659.75
-0.58% on the week
-0.83% month to date
+11.00% year to date
NQ, Nasdaq 100 futures
29,117.75
-0.93% on the week
-5.34% month to date
+14.70% year to date
YM, Dow futures
52,394.00
+0.34% on the week
+2.25% month to date
+7.77% year to date
RTY, Russell 2000 futures
2,784.50
+1.79% on the week
-1.50% month to date
+10.39% year to date
VIX, volatility
19.45
-2.70% on the week
+18.67% month to date
+34.05% year to date
Bitcoin
81,074.19
-1.15% on the week
-4.45% month to date
-8.63% year to date
ES, S&P 500 futures, weekly
NQ, Nasdaq 100 futures, weekly
US stocks ended the week mixed under the surface. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.58% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.93%, while Dow futures gained 0.34% and the Russell 2000 jumped 1.79%. Communication services was the weakest sector, down 4.36%, followed by industrials at 1.87% lower, while energy and health care led with gains of 1.6% and 1.45%.
The VIX finished at 19.45, down 2.7% on the week but still elevated, and crude oil held above $103 a barrel.
The month so far
October has been a rotation month. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 5.34% and the S&P 500 is off 0.83%, with technology down 7.37% in the sector ETF. Meanwhile the Dow is up 2.25%, and energy, consumer staples and health care have all posted gains of roughly 8% to 11%. The VIX is up 18.67% for the month, and gold has fallen 4.63%.
What happened this weekend
The weekend was quieter than the week, with Globex stock futures climbing as traders tried to recover from the S&P 500's losing week. Geopolitics stayed in the background, with Saudi Arabia reporting it intercepted missiles and drones from Iran-backed Houthis, which matters because oil is already above $100. Bitcoin and Ether drifted a little lower.
Futures try to bounce after a losing week
CNBC reported stock futures climbing as traders try to recover from the S&P 500's weekly loss. The real test comes Monday, with the Fed and Big Tech earnings still ahead.
Saudi Arabia intercepts Houthi missiles and drones
Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles and drones from Iran-backed Houthis. With crude oil already above $103, any threat to Gulf supply keeps energy prices and inflation expectations in focus.
China's Fifth Plenum begins
China's Fifth Plenum is scheduled to run October 26 to 29. It is a policy meeting, and we are watching for any signals on growth and trade that could touch global markets.
The Sunday 6 PM ET reopen
Bitcoin
$80,790.84
Down from the Friday close of $81,074.19
Ethereum
$2,355.95
Down from the Friday close of $2,384.08
Stock futures
Higher at the reopen
Per CNBC, futures were climbing as traders try to recover from last week's loss
The week ahead calendar
The Fed decision on Wednesday and the PCE inflation report on Thursday are the two anchors. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday after the close, Amazon follows Thursday, and Q3 GDP lands the same morning. Consensus numbers come from Newsquawk and market pricing from CME FedWatch. Times marked TBD were not sourced.
Monday, October 262 events
TBD
Verizon Q3 earnings (before the open)VZ
A read on consumer spending and telecom pricing power to start the week.
Low
TBD
Cadence Design, Nucor, Rambus, Amkor earnings (after the close)
Chip design and semiconductor packaging names give an early read on AI hardware demand.
Low
Tuesday, October 275 events
08:30
September durable goods orders
Shows business investment demand ahead of the GDP report.
Medium
10:00
September new home sales
Housing is sensitive to the 10 year yield, which is near 5%.
Low
TBD
FOMC meeting begins (day one)
Markets tend to get quieter and more cautious ahead of a decision day.
Medium
TBD
UPS and Boeing Q3 earnings (before the open)
UPS speaks to freight and consumer demand, and Boeing is a heavy weight in the Dow.
Medium
TBD
Visa Q4 and fiscal 2026 earnings (after the close)V
Payment volumes are a real time read on consumer spending.
Medium
Wednesday, October 284 events, 4 high impact
14:00
FOMC rate decision and statement
Markets price a hold of about 90%, so the statement wording and hints on December matter most. No dot plot this meeting.
Consensus Hold at 3.75% to 4.00% · Prior 3.75% to 4.00% after a 25bp hike in September
High impact
14:30
Fed chair press conference
Tone on inflation and a possible December move can swing yields and tech.
High impact
16:00
Alphabet Q3 earnings (after the close, call 4:30 PM)GOOGL
Communication services fell 4.36% last week, so this report is a key test for the sector.
High impact
16:00
Microsoft Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings (after the close, call 5:30 PM)MSFT
Cloud and AI spending guidance drives the whole tech trade, and tech is down over 7% this month.
High impact
Thursday, October 295 events, 3 high impact
08:30
Q3 GDP, advance estimate
A strong print supports growth, but could also keep rate hike talk alive.
Consensus 3.0% annualized (GDPNow 3.5%) · Prior 2.2% (Q2)
High impact
08:30
September PCE inflation (headline and core)
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge shapes December rate expectations right after the meeting.
Consensus Headline +0.5% m/m, 3.6% y/y; core +0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y · Prior Headline +0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y; core +0.2% m/m, 3.0% y/y
High impact
16:00
Amazon Q3 earnings (after the close, call 5:00 PM)AMZN
Amazon guided Q3 sales of $197 to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 to $26.5 billion, a benchmark for the print.
High impact
TBD
Mastercard, Eli Lilly, Caterpillar earnings (before the open)
Consumer payments, health care and industrials all report before the bell.
Medium
TBD
Intel earnings (after the close)INTC
A read on the chip cycle outside the AI leaders.
Medium
Friday, October 303 events
08:30
Q3 Employment Cost Index
Wage costs feed directly into the Fed's inflation worries.
Medium
TBD
ExxonMobil and Chevron Q3 earnings
With crude above $103 and energy up about 10.6% this month, the oil majors close out the week.
Medium
TBD
Bank of Japan policy decision
A surprise from the BoJ can ripple into global yields and the dollar.
Consensus Hold at 1.25% · Prior 1.25% after a 25bp hike in September
Medium
Earnings in focus
Three of the biggest companies in the market report this week. Microsoft and Alphabet come right after the Fed on Wednesday, and Amazon follows Thursday evening. With Nasdaq 100 futures down 5.34% in October, these reports carry extra weight. Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Intel, Exxon and Chevron round out the week.
The themes driving it
The Fed after a September hike
The Fed raised rates in September to 3.75% to 4.00%. Markets price a hold this week, with roughly a 9% to 10% chance of another hike. We are watching the statement and press conference for clues about December, and there is no dot plot this time.
Names in focus: SPY, TLT, IWM
Big Tech earnings into a tech slump
The technology sector ETF is down 7.37% this month and communication services fell 4.36% last week. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report within 24 hours, so their guidance on spending and demand could set the tone for the Nasdaq.
Names in focus: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, QQQ
Oil above $100 and sticky inflation
Crude oil is above $103, up 11.2% this month, and the 10 year yield sits near 5%. Thursday's PCE report is expected to show headline inflation at 3.6% year over year, so energy and rates stay central.
Names in focus: XLE, USO, TNX
Rotation into defensives and small caps
Energy, health care, utilities and staples have led this month while tech lagged, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.79% last week. We are watching whether that rotation holds if Big Tech surprises.
Names in focus: XLE, XLV, XLU, IWM
Levels we are watching
S&P 500 futures
7648.5 to 7812.25
Last week's low and high, with Friday's close at 7659.75, near the bottom
Nasdaq 100 futures
28987 to 30113
Last week's low and high, with Friday's close at 29117.75
Russell 2000 futures
2723.3 to 2806.2
Last week's range, with Friday's close at 2784.5 near the top
VIX
19.45
Last week ranged from 16.51 to 20.66
These are last week's ranges, shown for context and not as forecasts. The S&P 500 closed close to the bottom of its range while the Russell closed close to the top, which fits the rotation theme. A move outside these ranges after the Fed or Big Tech earnings would be notable. This is educational content, not financial advice.
How our futures algo traded last week
Result
+$0
net for the week
Win rate
n/a
0 wins, 0 losses
Follow every signal
Telegram, Discord, X
The book stayed flat this past week with zero trades, so there are no wins, losses or profit and loss to report. No strategies were logged as active in the data for this period, so nothing was named or triggered. Sitting out is a valid result, and we would rather stay flat than force a trade.
Crypto into the new week
Bitcoin closed Friday at $81,074.19, down 1.15% on the week and 4.45% on the month, and was at $80,790.84 on Sunday, down 0.35%. Ether closed at $2,384.08 and was at $2,355.95 on Sunday, down 1.18%. Both are trading with risk appetite, so the Fed decision and Big Tech earnings are the catalysts we are watching.
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Educational market preview, not financial advice. Nothing here is a
recommendation to buy or sell any security, and none of it is a forecast. Futures, options and crypto
trading carry a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for every investor. Prices reflect the
October 30, 2026 close and the Sunday Globex reopen; charts are live and
interactive, so they will move after publication. Scheduled dates and times are subject to change,
so always verify with the primary source before acting.