The Week Ahead, October 05 to October 09, 2026, published Sunday October 04, 2026 5:30 PM ET
Week Ahead: A Thin Data Calendar, Fed Minutes on Wednesday, and Oil, Yields and Iran Still Setting the Tone
After a soft jobs print and a record close in the Nasdaq 100, the market faces a light calendar where the Fed minutes, energy prices and Treasury yields matter most.
Where last week left us
ES, S&P 500 futures
7,777.25
-0.34% on the week
+0.69% month to date
+12.71% year to date
NQ, Nasdaq 100 futures
31,061.75
+0.56% on the week
+0.98% month to date
+22.36% year to date
YM, Dow futures
51,477.00
-1.32% on the week
+0.46% month to date
+5.88% year to date
RTY, Russell 2000 futures
2,850.90
-0.29% on the week
+0.85% month to date
+13.02% year to date
VIX, volatility
15.31
+2.96% on the week
-6.59% month to date
+5.51% year to date
Bitcoin
84,497.21
+0.05% on the week
-0.42% month to date
-4.77% year to date
ES, S&P 500 futures, weekly
NQ, Nasdaq 100 futures, weekly
The week ending October 2 was split. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.56% and closed at a record after a soft September jobs report, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.34%, Russell 2000 futures lost 0.29% and Dow futures fell 1.32%. Under the surface it was a technology versus everything else week: Technology rose 1.8%, while Health Care (down 2.65%), Financials (down 2.46%) and Communication Services (down 2.34%) lagged.
Rates and commodities moved too. The US 10 year yield rose 1.79% on the week to 5.28%, the dollar index gained 0.95% to 101.93, and gold dropped 3.68% to 4,162.30. Crude oil eased 1.41% to 91.11 as the Strait of Hormuz story stayed in the headlines.
The month so far
For the month so far, the picture is mildly positive. S&P 500 futures are up 0.69%, Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.98%, Russell 2000 futures are up 0.85% and Dow futures are up 0.46%. The VIX is down 6.59% for the month at 15.31, a calm reading given the headlines.
Year to date, Nasdaq 100 futures lead at 22.36%, ahead of the Russell 2000 at 13.02%, the S&P 500 at 12.71% and the Dow at 5.88%.
What happened this weekend
The weekend news flow was dominated by the US and Iran standoff, with no major economic data. Reports pointed to deadlocked diplomacy, more tankers struck in the Middle East, and OPEC+ holding November output targets steady. Bitcoin rose about 1.56% from Friday's close to roughly 85,819.
US and Iran standoff drags on
Reuters reported Iran is readying harder retaliation if attacked and that diplomacy faces long odds. UAE stocks fell on the deadlock. The risk for US markets is energy prices and risk appetite when futures reopen.
Hormuz shipping stays in focus
CNBC reported more tankers were struck in the Middle East as Iran restated its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters also noted September LNG shipments through Hormuz hit their highest since the war began.
OPEC+ holds November output steady
OPEC+ agreed to keep November oil output targets unchanged, and Reuters reported it delayed a capacity review as the war disrupts expansion plans. Steady supply keeps the focus on shipping risk rather than quotas.
The Sunday 6 PM ET reopen
Bitcoin since Friday
85,819
Up from Friday's close of 84,497
Ethereum since Friday
2,704
Up from Friday's close of 2,668
S&P 500 futures Friday close
7,777.25
Globex reopens Sunday at 6 PM ET
The week ahead calendar
This is a light week for hard data. ISM Services on Monday starts it, the Fed's September minutes on Wednesday are the main scheduled event, and jobless claims, PepsiCo and Delta fill out the back half. With the next CPI report not due until October 14, the minutes and energy headlines have room to drive the tape.
Monday, October 53 events, 1 high impact
10:00
ISM Services PMI (September)
The prices paid component (72.6 last month) is a read on inflation pressure.
Consensus 55.7 ยท Prior 55.4
High impact
TBD
S&P Global Services PMI (final, September)
A cross-check on the ISM services reading.
Consensus 58.7
Low
TBD
McCormick (MKC) earnings, before the openMKC
Packaged food margins and consumer demand.
Low
Tuesday, October 62 events
08:30
US Trade Balance (August)
Trade flows feed into growth estimates.
Low
After close
Constellation Brands (STZ) earningsSTZ
A read on beer demand and the consumer.
Medium
Wednesday, October 74 events, 1 high impact
10:30
EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Oil is a key driver while Hormuz risk is in the headlines.
Prior +0.922M barrels
Medium
14:00
FOMC Minutes (September meeting)
Shows how divided the Fed was after raising rates to 3.75% to 4.00% and whether more hikes are likely.
High impact
15:00
US Consumer Credit (August)
Shows how much households are borrowing.
Low
After close
Levi Strauss (LEVI) earningsLEVI
Apparel demand and tariff costs.
Low
Thursday, October 84 events
06:00
PepsiCo (PEP) Q3 earnings, before the openPEP
North American volume trends say a lot about consumers.
Medium
08:30
Initial Jobless Claims
After a weak payrolls print, claims show whether layoffs are rising.
Prior 197K
Medium
10:00
Wholesale Sales and Inventories (August)
Inventory data feeds into GDP estimates.
Low
TBD
10 Year Treasury Note Auction
With the 10 year yield at 5.28%, demand at auction can move rates and stocks.
Medium
Friday, October 93 events
06:30
Delta Air Lines (DAL) Q3 earnings, before the openDAL
Fuel costs and travel demand, with crude near 91.
Medium
10:00
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary October)
Includes inflation expectations, which the Fed watches closely.
Medium
TBD
30 Year Bond Auction
Long yields have been rising, so weak demand could pressure stocks.
Medium
Earnings in focus
It is a light earnings week with few mega caps. PepsiCo on Thursday and Delta on Friday are the biggest names, both useful reads on the consumer and on fuel costs. Constellation Brands (Tuesday after the close) and Levi Strauss (Wednesday after the close) add more consumer color. Consensus figures differ across sources, so check your own data provider.
The themes driving it
Fed minutes and the rate path
The September minutes follow the Fed's first hike since 2023. Markets will read them for how united officials were and whether more hikes are on the table, especially after a soft payrolls report of +29K versus about 85K expected.
Names in focus: SPY, TLT, KRE
Oil, Iran and Hormuz
Crude is near 91 and headlines about tanker strikes and stalled diplomacy keep energy volatile. Energy rose 1.26% last week while airlines and consumer names face fuel cost risk.
Names in focus: XLE, DAL, USO
Yields near 5.3 percent
The 10 year yield rose 1.79% last week to 5.28% and the dollar gained. Higher yields can pressure growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors like Real Estate, which fell 1.8%.
Names in focus: TLT, XLRE, IWM
Tech leads, rest lags
Technology gained 1.8% while Health Care, Financials and Communication Services each fell more than 2%. Narrow leadership can hold, but it also leaves the index sensitive to a tech pullback.
Names in focus: XLK, QQQ, XLV, XLF
Levels we are watching
S&P 500 futures
7,672.75 to 7,810.25
Last week's low and high, with the close at 7,777.25.
Nasdaq 100 futures
30,356.75 to 31,282.50
Last week's range, closing near the top at 31,061.75.
Dow futures
50,859 to 52,153
Last week's range, with a close of 51,477.
VIX
15.30 to 17.59
Closed at 15.31, near the bottom of last week's range.
These are last week's reference ranges, shown for context only. They are not predictions. Watching how price behaves near a prior high or low can help you understand whether buyers or sellers are in control. This is education, not financial advice.
How our futures algo traded last week
Trades
5
ES/NQ/RTY/BTC, live sim plus forward test
Result
-$1,178.2
net for the week
Win rate
0%
0 wins, 5 losses
Follow every signal
Telegram, Discord, X
This was a losing week for our simulated and forward-test books, with five trades and five losses. The biggest drags were SH_STO_ES_LONDON_SESS_1h at minus 332.90 over two trades and SH_VBOx_NQ_LonClose_1h_N55 at minus 371.00. SH_VBO_ES_NY_SESS_1h_N20 lost 271.80 and SH_STO_BTC_LONDONCLOSE_15m lost 202.50. These are paper and sim results, shared for transparency, not a promise of future results.
Crypto into the new week
Bitcoin closed Friday at 84,497 and traded near 85,819 by the weekend, up about 1.56%. Ethereum moved from 2,668 to about 2,704, up about 1.33%. Bitcoin is still down 4.77% year to date and Ethereum is down 11.07%.
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preview sets the week up, the daily recap closes each session out, and the alerts fill in everything
in between.
Educational market preview, not financial advice. Nothing here is a
recommendation to buy or sell any security, and none of it is a forecast. Futures, options and crypto
trading carry a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for every investor. Prices reflect the
October 09, 2026 close and the Sunday Globex reopen; charts are live and
interactive, so they will move after publication. Scheduled dates and times are subject to change,
so always verify with the primary source before acting.