The Week Ahead, September 14 to September 18, 2026, published Sunday September 13, 2026 5:30 PM ET
The Fed Meets With a Hike Priced In, Oil Closed at 100, and Friday Is Quad Witching
Crude oil closed the week at exactly 100 dollars and the 10 year yield sits at 4.97 percent, which has done something we have not written in years: the market is pricing a Fed rate hike as the more likely outcome on Wednesday. Here is the full calendar, the levels, and what actually matters.
Where last week left us
ES, S&P 500 futures
7,659.50
-1.23% on the week
+0.22% month to date
+11.00% year to date
NQ, Nasdaq 100 futures
29,387.00
-0.47% on the week
+0.90% month to date
+15.76% year to date
YM, Dow futures
52,585.00
-2.16% on the week
-0.46% month to date
+8.16% year to date
RTY, Russell 2000 futures
2,904.50
-2.20% on the week
-0.69% month to date
+15.14% year to date
VIX, volatility
15.84
+9.02% on the week
-3.06% month to date
+9.17% year to date
Bitcoin
77,173.80
-3.95% on the week
-0.30% month to date
-13.03% year to date
ES, S&P 500 futures, weekly
NQ, Nasdaq 100 futures, weekly
Last week was the week the calm broke. Crude oil ripped 9.58 percent to settle at exactly 100.05 dollars after the United States destroyed five Iranian crude tankers, Brent crossed the 100 dollar line, and the whole rates complex repriced behind it. The 10 year Treasury yield climbed to 4.97 percent, and once yields go there, the equity math gets harder for everything that is valued on a long stream of future cash flows.
What makes this tape interesting is how uneven the damage was. Dow futures fell 2.16 percent to 52,585 and Russell 2000 futures fell 2.20 percent to 2,904.50, while Nasdaq 100 futures got away with a 0.47 percent loss at 29,387 and S&P 500 futures fell 1.23 percent to 7,659.50. That is not a market selling risk, that is a market selling everything that has to borrow money. The VIX rose 9.02 percent but only to 15.84, which tells you this was a repricing and not a panic.
Under the surface, only two of the eleven S&P sectors finished green: technology at plus 0.91 percent and energy at plus 0.80 percent, the second of which needs no explanation at 100 dollar crude. Health care was the worst at minus 4.56 percent, with materials down 3.17 percent, consumer discretionary down 3.01 percent and financials down 2.24 percent. When energy and megacap tech are the only things working, the index level hides a much messier tape underneath.
The month so far
September is not actually a down month yet, which surprises most people who watched last week. Month to date, S&P 500 futures are up 0.22 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.90 percent, while Dow futures are down 0.46 percent and the Russell 2000 is down 0.69 percent. The year to date picture puts it in context: the Nasdaq 100 is up 15.76 percent, the Russell is up 15.14 percent, the S&P 500 is up 11.00 percent and the Dow is up 8.16 percent. This is a rotation inside a strong year, not the unwind of one.
The two charts that have genuinely changed character this month are energy and rates. Crude is up 10.90 percent month to date and the 10 year yield is up 3.73 percent over the same stretch. Gold, which you would expect to love a Middle East escalation, actually fell 2.79 percent last week to 4,366, because a rising real yield beats a geopolitical bid. Bitcoin remains the outlier of the year: down 0.30 percent on the month and down 13.03 percent on the year at 77,174, a very different story from the one equities are telling.
What happened this weekend
Quiet on the tape and loud on the wires. Crude held its gains with Brent hovering just above 100 dollars and WTI in the mid 90s to low 100s depending on the contract, fed funds futures firmed to roughly a 73 percent probability of a quarter point hike on Wednesday, and crypto, the only market that actually trades on a Sunday, drifted lower. Nothing that happened over the weekend undid last week's repricing, and that is the point going into the reopen.
Oil stayed above 100 dollars through the weekend
Brent crude held just over 100 dollars a barrel and WTI settled the week at 100.05 dollars, up 9.58 percent, after the United States destroyed five Iranian crude tankers in response to attempted attacks on an American warship. There was no weekend de-escalation headline, which means the energy premium carries into Monday rather than fading. Every inflation forecast, every Fed model and every transport and consumer margin estimate now has to be rebuilt around triple digit crude.
Rate hike odds firmed into the meeting
Fed funds futures ended the week pricing roughly a 73 percent chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, which would take the target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. That probability built through the week as crude tested 100 dollars and the 10 year yield pushed toward 5 percent, and it did not soften over the weekend. A hike is now the base case rather than the risk case.
Crypto drifted lower while equities were closed
Bitcoin slipped 0.61 percent from Friday's close to trade near 76,701, and Ethereum fell 1.49 percent to about 2,477. Crypto is the only liquid read on risk appetite over a weekend, and a mild drift lower with no capitulation is consistent with a market that is cautious rather than frightened heading into the Fed.
The Sunday 6 PM ET reopen
Bitcoin since Friday close
76,701
down 0.61 percent from 77,174
Ethereum since Friday close
2,477
down 1.49 percent from 2,515
Crude oil, Friday close
100.05
up 9.58 percent on the week
US 10 year yield
4.97 percent
the level that is driving everything else
The week ahead calendar
Every scheduled catalyst that can move the US market this week, day by day, in Eastern time. High impact means the release or event has a track record of moving index futures on the print. This week is unusually top heavy: one event on Wednesday afternoon matters more than everything else on the list combined.
Monday, September 142 events
All day
No major US economic data
A blank Monday means the tape trades on oil, yields and Fed positioning ahead of Tuesday's meeting start rather than on data.
Low
All day
Goldman Sachs Global Retailing and Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare conferences begin
Guidance updates out of conference presentations are the main single stock risk on an otherwise empty Monday, and health care is coming off a 4.56 percent weekly loss.
Low
Tuesday, September 153 events, 1 high impact
08:30
Empire State Manufacturing Index (September)
The first regional manufacturing read of the month and the earliest look at whether triple digit oil is showing up in input costs and new orders.
Medium
13:00
Treasury sells 18 billion dollars in 20 year notes
With the 10 year at 4.97 percent, a weak long bond auction would push yields higher into the Fed decision and pressure equities directly. Watch the tail and the bid to cover.
Medium
Day 1
FOMC two day meeting begins
Day one produces no statement, but the blackout means no Fed speakers can walk market pricing back. Whatever the market believes going in is what it trades on.
High impact
Wednesday, September 166 events, 3 high impact
08:30
Retail Sales (August), headline and ex autos
The last major data point the Fed sees before it decides, released five and a half hours before the statement. A hot number hardens the case for a hike; a soft one gives the doves something to point at.
High impact
08:30
Import and Export Prices (August)
A direct channel for the oil shock into the inflation data. Import prices are where triple digit crude shows up first.
Medium
10:00
NAHB Housing Market Index and Business Inventories (July)
Homebuilder sentiment is the cleanest real time read on what a 5 percent 10 year yield does to housing demand, and it sets up Thursday's housing starts.
Low
14:00
FOMC rate decision, statement and Summary of Economic Projections
The event of the week and arguably of the quarter. Fed funds futures price roughly a 73 percent chance of a quarter point hike to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. The updated dot plot matters as much as the decision, because it tells you whether this is one insurance move against an oil shock or the start of something.
Consensus roughly 73 percent odds of a 25 basis point hike to 3.75 to 4.00 percent ยท Prior 3.50 to 3.75 percent
High impact
14:30
Fed Chair press conference
Chair Warsh has run deliberately stripped down communications since taking over, so the press conference is where the market finds out how much of the oil shock the Fed intends to look through. The 2:00 to 2:30 range is usually a trap, and the move that follows the press conference tends to be the one that holds.
High impact
After close
Lennar reports quarterly resultsLEN
The largest homebuilder reporting the same afternoon the Fed decides, with the 10 year near 5 percent. Its order book and margin commentary is the single best read on housing demand at these rates.
Medium
Thursday, September 175 events
08:30
Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims
The first labour read after the decision. If the Fed hikes into an oil shock, claims become the number that decides whether the market prices a policy mistake.
Medium
08:30
Housing Starts and Building Permits (August)
Permits lead starts, and both lead the homebuilders. With the 10 year at 4.97 percent this is the hard data version of Wednesday's builder sentiment survey.
Medium
08:30
Philadelphia Fed Business Index (September)
The second regional manufacturing survey of the week and the more market sensitive of the two. Its prices paid component is the one to read for the oil pass through.
Medium
10:00
Pending Home Sales (August)
Completes Thursday's housing picture. Three housing data points in one morning against a 5 percent 10 year is a real test for the rate sensitive corners of the market.
Low
Overnight
Bank of Japan monetary policy decision
A Bank of Japan move lands overnight into Friday's US session and feeds straight back into global yields and the carry trade. With the 10 year already near 5 percent, a hawkish surprise from Tokyo is not something the tape needs.
Medium
Friday, September 183 events, 1 high impact
09:15
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (August)
The last data point of the week and a read on whether the energy shock is reaching the real economy, released fifteen minutes before the open on an expiry day.
Medium
10:00
Leading Economic Index (August)
A backward looking composite that rarely moves the tape on its own, but on an expiry day any 10:00 print can be the excuse for a move that was going to happen anyway.
Low
All day
Quadruple witching, September equity and index option and futures expiry
The third Friday of September expires stock options, index options, index futures and single stock futures at once. Volume is enormous, dealer hedging unwinds, and price can move in ways that have nothing to do with news. Two days after an FOMC decision, the positioning unwind is the story.
High impact
Earnings in focus
This is a light earnings week by design, which is part of why the Fed decision carries so much of the load. The one report that genuinely matters is Lennar on Wednesday after the close, because it lands hours after the decision and speaks directly to what a 5 percent 10 year yield does to housing. The charts below are live, so you can watch how these names trade into and out of their prints.
Lennar, Wednesday after close
Health care, last week's worst
The themes driving it
The oil shock is now a monetary policy problem
Crude up 9.58 percent in a week to close at exactly 100.05 dollars is no longer just an energy story. It feeds import prices, it feeds headline inflation, and it is the single biggest reason the market moved from pricing a hold to pricing a hike. The unusual part is that this is a supply shock, and textbook central banking says you look through supply shocks. Wednesday tells us whether this Fed agrees. Watch energy relative to the index: as long as XLE is one of only two sectors working, the market is treating this as an energy problem rather than a growth problem.
Names in focus: XLE, USO, CVX, XOM
A 5 percent 10 year is the real ceiling on equities
The 10 year yield at 4.97 percent is the number that explains last week's sector table better than any headline. The rate sensitive parts of the market got hit hardest: the Dow down 2.16 percent, the Russell 2000 down 2.20 percent, real estate down 1.88 percent and utilities down 1.49 percent, while the Nasdaq 100 lost only 0.47 percent because those balance sheets do not need to refinance anything. If the 10 year takes out 5 percent this week, expect that dispersion to widen rather than mean revert.
Names in focus: TLT, IWM, XLRE, XLU
The index is hiding how narrow this market has become
S&P 500 futures fell 1.23 percent last week, which sounds orderly, and the Nasdaq 100 lost less than half a percent. Under it, nine of eleven sectors were red, health care lost 4.56 percent, materials lost 3.17 percent and consumer discretionary lost 3.01 percent, while the Dow lost 2.16 percent. That is a market being carried by a handful of very large names. Narrow leadership is not a sell signal on its own, but it does mean the index gives you less warning when the leaders finally take a turn.
Names in focus: QQQ, SPY, RSP, XLV
Quad witching turns Friday into a positioning event
September quadruple witching falls on Friday the 18th, two days after the Fed decision. Stock options, index options, index futures and single stock futures all expire together, dealer hedges unwind, and the volume is among the largest of the year. The practical read is simple: moves on an expiry day carry less information about what people believe and more about what they are forced to do. If you trade it, size for noise rather than signal.
Names in focus: SPY, QQQ, IWM
Levels we are watching
ES, last week's range
7,585.50 to 7,764.50
closed at 7,659.50, the low is the first line that matters on any Fed disappointment
NQ, last week's range
29,040.50 to 29,764.75
closed at 29,387, still the strongest of the four and the one holding the index up
YM, the week's loser
51,992 to 53,772
closed at 52,585 after a 2.16 percent week, and a 1,780 point range says how disorderly it was
RTY, the rate sensitive one
2,887.60 to 2,979.30
closed at 2,904.50, near the bottom of its own weekly range
US 10 year yield
4.97 percent
5 percent is the psychological line the equity market is watching
Crude oil
100.05 dollars
100 is the level that turned this from an energy story into a Fed story
None of this is a forecast, and none of it is a recommendation. It is a map of the levels we are watching, and the plan changes when the levels change. Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET can invalidate every one of them in a single print, which is exactly why they are written down in advance.
Crypto into the new week
Bitcoin and Ethereum trade straight through the weekend, so they are the only honest read on risk appetite before equity futures reopen. Bitcoin slipped 0.61 percent from Friday's close of 77,174 to trade near 76,701, and Ethereum fell 1.49 percent to about 2,477. Zooming out, crypto has been the outlier of the year: Bitcoin is down 13.03 percent year to date while the Nasdaq 100 is up 15.76 percent. Both charts below are live and interactive.
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