Stochastic Pullback — ES NY-AM KZ (1h): A LIVE mean-reversion Strategy for ES
Buy the oversold stochastic dip / sell the overbought pop in the ES NY-AM window.
Market: ES Timeframe: 1-hour Session: NY AM KZ (09:30-11:00 ET)
How it works
On the ES hourly, when the 9-period stochastic crosses back up from oversold (or down from overbought) inside the NY-AM kill zone, take the pullback in the prevailing direction.
- Entry: Stochastic %K crosses out of <25 (long) / >75 (short) during 09:30-11:00 ET.
- Exit: 1.5x risk target; ATR-based stop (2.5x ATR).
- Risk: 0.25% of account per trade, 1 micro (MES).
Backtested performance
ES — the numbers
| Profit Factor | 1.57 |
| System Quality (SQN) | 2.03 |
| Win Rate | 55% |
| Max Drawdown | -1.5% |
| Net Return (1 micro, $50k) | +5% |
| Trades | 60 |
| Years Tested | 10 |
When it works
- Two-sided NY-AM chop with clean swings
- 55% win rate — reliable pullback entries
- Tight -1.5% drawdown
When it fails
- One-way trend opens (stochastic stays pinned)
- Whipsaw around the oversold/overbought line
- Gap-and-go mornings
Why it has an edge
A classic oscillator edge, isolated to the one window where ES swings two-sided.
How we validate it
Every sleeve is backtested on 8+ years of Sierra Chart NQ/ES data with realistic costs (2-tick slippage + $0.74/side commission), sized at 0.25% risk on a $50k account, and stress-tested per calendar year. Micros only (MNQ/MES). The 14 kill-zone sleeves were mined from a 10-year ES+NQ session sweep and are scored by Van Tharp SQN. Signals are tracked live every session.
See this strategy live
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Educational content only, not financial advice. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future performance. Futures carry substantial risk and most short-term traders lose money. Test on your own data and trade your own plan.